How Much Oil is Left in the world? | Auto Expert John Cadogan | Australia

How Much Oil is Left in the world? | Auto Expert John Cadogan | Australia

Oil is dying, right? The future’s already here. We’ll soon be sparking up on clean batteries and renewable energy. Burning will be a thing of the past, primitive and dirty. What a load of bullshit. That’s next.

According to the International Energy Agency – an energy security-promoting think tank representing 29 member countries, in 2015 the number of electric cars on the road closed at 1.26 million.

That’s a lot of cars. I mean, where would you park them?

But according to Navigant Research, the number of vehicles on earth climbed from one billion in 2010 to 1.2 billion in 2014 – that’s 20 per cent up in five years (inclusive). And only one in one-thousand of those is an EV.

To all you car haters I’d suggest that the internal combustion engine has in point of fact done far more good to humanity than bad. Without it our cities would crumble and life as you know it would simply stop. Other viewpoints on this are fantasies.

I don’t know about you, but I really don’t want to go back to the dark ages – so inconvenient – and this really is the only alternative to internal combustion. There is no internal combustion engine replacement that is deployable now. None. Suck it up, greenies.

According to BP’s Statistical Review of world Energy for 2016, renewable energy is only 2.8 per cent of global energy consumption – that’s up from 0.8 per cent a decade ago. Renewables are hardly threatening to overtake conventional energy any time soon.

Proven Oil reserves on earth: 1.7 million million barrels. That’s 1.7 terra-barrels of Oil. 1700 gigabarrels. Oil will not be exhausted any time soon. Australia’s share of that: Four thousand million barrels. (Of interest only if you are from around here, I know. ‘Straya is not a big player in this. We do coal.)

Incidentally, humanity consumes about 95 million barrels of Oil per day. That’s what it takes to keep the shop doors open, basically. So, based on current consumption and current proven reserves, that’s about 18,000 days supply. A ballpark of 50 years.

Oil consumption has climbed about one per cent per year for the past 10 years. The end of Oil is simply not imminent. The concept that it is, is a complete fallacy.

You pull crude out of the ground in barrels, right? You take it to a refinery – where you split it up into component chemical categories that each have particular uses.

Each barrel is 159 litres (or 42 US gallons). That’s 35 Imperial gallons. I’m going to work with litres. ‘Cause that’s How we roll here in ‘Straya.
I’m simplifying this only a little, but in broad terms you really don’t get to decide what to turn the crude Oil into. It’s pre-determined. You can’t just elect not to make gasoline.

All you can do is separate the bits. That’s what a refinery does. The top three chemicals that come out of a 159-litre barrel of Oil are 73 litres of petrol, 47 litres of diesel and 15 litres of jet fuel.

Everything else – about 30 litres – is Oils and lubricants, waxes, napthalene, bitumen, gasses, and petroleum coke, plus sundry chemicals. That’s How crude Oil rolls, basically.

Fun fact: You actually get about 10 litres more out of the refinery than you put in. But relax: the first law of thermodynamics is not harmed in this process. It’s not something for nothing.

In other words, 159 litres of crude becomes about 169 litres of products. It’s not magic – it’s just that the bulk of the products have a lower density than the crude, which pumps up the volume. If you want to Google this in detail, it’s called processing gain or refinery gain.

So here’s the bottom line – petrol is 46 per cent of every barrel of Oil. It’s the biggest single fraction of crude Oil. What are we going to do with it? Throw it away, because imbeciles like Ted and Tonino simply don’t like it? Because they’ve swallowed the convenient spin that petrol is obsolete?

95 million barrels of crude Oil a day. So, here’s a plan: Let’s throw about half of it away, because … batteries are the new black, and it’s cool to suck on Elon Musk’s Tesla Cult-flavoured Kool-aid.

Perhaps we should just tip all that allegedly obsolete petrol – 40-something million barrels a day – into the ocean. Or burn it … hang on a sec: Nah – we’re already doing that.

How Much Oil is Left in the world? | Auto Expert John Cadogan | Australia

Related posts